BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. NYSE: BBAI, an AI-powered resolution intelligence supplier, has seen its inventory value drop since its early March earnings report, with shares falling practically 20% to round $2.69.
BigBear.ai Immediately$2.49 -0.08 (-3.11%) As of 04/16/2025 03:58 PM Eastern52-Week Vary$1.17▼$10.36Price Goal$5.33
This extends a year-to-date (YTD) lack of roughly 39%, erasing earlier beneficial properties and leaving the share value nicely under its February highs.
The preliminary set off for the sell-off was BigBear.ai’s disappointing This fall and full-year 2024 earnings launch on March 6. Nevertheless, the downward strain has continued on account of a number of detrimental components. Get BigBear.ai alerts:Signal Up
Traders at the moment are asking themselves: Is that this a beaten-down alternative—or a deeper sign that BigBear.ai’s story is falling aside?
Progress Overshadowed by Important Losses
BigBear.ai’s earnings report for This fall 2024 confirmed an 8% YOY income enhance to $43.8 million, lacking analyst expectations of $53.84 million. The adjusted loss per share was 43 cents, considerably worse than the anticipated 6-cent loss. 
Full-year 2024 income was $158.24 million, up barely from $155.16 million in 2023. The online loss widened to $257.1 million from $60.4 million in 2023, impacted by a $93.3 million non-cash cost. This fall gross margin improved to 37.4% YOY, however SG&A prices rose to $22.2 million from $18.2 million YOY.
BigBear.ai ended 2024 with $50.1 million in money and later diminished its internet debt to $27 million by means of Q1 2025 actions.
2025 Bleak Outlook Provides to Pessimism
BigBear.ai’s forward-looking steerage for fiscal yr 2025 additional compounded the disappointing historic outcomes and didn’t encourage confidence.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Worth Chart for Thursday, April, 17, 2025
The projected full-year income vary of $160 million to $180 million missed the analyst consensus of roughly $193.9 million, suggesting potential income stagnation in comparison with the $158.24 million generated in 2024.
The outlook for profitability was much more regarding, with the corporate guiding for detrimental single-digit thousands and thousands in adjusted EBITDA for 2025. This means that administration doesn’t anticipate the corporate to attain operational profitability within the coming yr, even on an adjusted, non-GAAP foundation, additional delaying the timeline for reaching sustainable earnings. 
BigBear.ai explicitly warned that its steerage could possibly be negatively impacted by unexpected occasions similar to a U.S. authorities shutdown or important shifts in nationwide safety spending priorities, highlighting the corporate’s vulnerability to exterior components.

Exterior Headwinds Threaten Core Enterprise
Past the company-specific monetary outcomes, exterior components proceed to weigh closely on BigBear.ai’s prospects and inventory efficiency.
The directive from the present administration for the Division of Protection to determine $50 billion in funds cuts stays a major overhang. Given BigBear.ai’s substantial reliance on contracts from the U.S. protection and intelligence communities, any discount in obtainable funding poses a direct risk to its income pipeline and development potential. This uncertainty is probably going a key issue mirrored within the firm’s cautious 2025 steerage.
Moreover, the broader macroeconomic setting stays difficult for growth-oriented expertise shares, significantly these which can be unprofitable. Issues about potential financial slowdowns, weaker shopper confidence, and fluctuating manufacturing information contribute to a “risk-off” sentiment available in the market, the place traders prioritize profitability and stability over speculative development tales. This makes it tough for firms like BigBear.ai, with widening losses, to draw sustained investor help.
Insider Promoting Indicators Lack of Confidence
The bearish sentiment surrounding BigBear.ai has been considerably amplified by a current development of inventory gross sales from key insiders and main shareholders.
Notably, entities linked to AE Industrial Companions, a serious institutional holder with shut ties to the corporate because of the Pangiam acquisition, bought a considerable block of round 8.24 million shares on March 5 and 6, proper after the disappointing earnings launch. These gross sales generated roughly $36.7 million at costs significantly decrease than the inventory’s February highs.
Giant gross sales by knowledgeable traders, significantly following detrimental information, are sometimes considered by the market as a insecurity in an organization’s short-term prospects. Some reviews even counsel that complete current insider promoting, probably together with further divestments, could possibly be as excessive as $78 million. 
Mixed with insider gross sales in late 2024 and 2025 by high executives—together with the previous CEO Amanda Lengthy and Director Sean Bernard Battle, in addition to present Chief Accounting Officer Sean Ricker—this wave of promoting has raised severe pink flags. Market watchers typically interpret such strikes as a scarcity of religion within the firm’s near-term outlook.
Analyst Downgrades Replicate Deteriorating Sentiment
BigBear.ai Inventory Forecast Today12-Month Inventory Worth Forecast:$5.33114.19% UpsideModerate BuyBased on 4 Analyst RatingsCurrent Worth$2.49High Forecast$6.00Average Forecast$5.33Low Forecast$4.00BigBear.ai Inventory Forecast Particulars
BigBear.ai’s This fall earnings and steerage resulted in analyst downgrades and value goal cuts, resulting in a lowered consensus score of Reasonable Purchase and a lowered common value goal now set at $5.33.
Regardless of the potential upside indicated by the worth goal, the detrimental analyst actions counsel diminished confidence and poor quantitative metrics for the corporate.
Uncertainty Excessive, Dangers Elevated

Whereas BigBear.ai possesses invaluable AI expertise and operates in strategically vital sectors, its monetary efficiency and outlook have eroded investor confidence, resulting in a pointy and sustained inventory value decline. The theoretical upside recommended by common analyst value targets seems more and more indifferent from the corporate’s present actuality and dangers.
Given these challenges and the shortage of clear constructive catalysts, the inventory’s downward development is more likely to proceed. Traders ought to train excessive warning; making an attempt to “purchase the dip” beneath these circumstances is very speculative. It’s prudent to stay on the sidelines till BigBear.ai supplies concrete proof of a basic turnaround, together with a transparent path to profitability and stabilization in its working setting.Earlier than you contemplate BigBear.ai, you will need to hear this.MarketBeat retains monitor of Wall Avenue’s top-rated and greatest performing analysis analysts and the shares they suggest to their purchasers every day. MarketBeat has recognized the 5 shares that high analysts are quietly whispering to their purchasers to purchase now earlier than the broader market catches on… and BigBear.ai wasn’t on the checklist.Whereas BigBear.ai presently has a Reasonable Purchase score amongst analysts, top-rated analysts imagine these 5 shares are higher buys.View The 5 Shares Right here Enter your e mail deal with and we’ll ship you MarketBeat’s checklist of seven greatest retirement shares and why they need to be in your portfolio. Get This Free Report