Novo Nordisk A/S TodayNVONovo Nordisk A/S$103.44 -2.52 (-2.38%) (As of 05:45 PM ET)52-Week Vary$99.42▼$148.15Dividend Yield0.70percentP/E Ratio33.48Price Goal$150.40
Latest gross sales of a little-known inventory, Madrigal Prescribed drugs NASDAQ: MDGL, may bode properly for Novo Nordisk A/S NYSE: NVO. The pharma trade large has seen explosive gross sales progress for its GLP-1 agonist drug, semaglutide. Marketed by the names Ozempic and Wegovy, gross sales of the medicine grew 32% and 76% by the primary 9 months of 2024, in comparison with the identical 2023 interval.
Nevertheless, shares of Novo Nordisk have fallen significantly because the all-time highs they reached in the course of 2024. Now, the inventory has supplied a complete return of simply 5% on the 12 months, as of the Dec. 17 shut. A lot of this has been as a result of additional medical outcomes that confirmed stronger weight reduction efficacy for Zepbound. It’s the GLP-1 agonist drug bought by Novo’s prime competitor, Eli Lilly NYSE: LLY. I’ll break down the autumn from grace that Novo shares have skilled within the second half of 2024. I’ll then clarify different medical and monetary outcomes that might assist reignite Novo shares.Get Novo Nordisk A/S alerts:Signal Up
Semaglutide Going through Unfavorable Information on A number of Fronts
In mid-2024, a examine examined Novo’s semaglutide in opposition to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, often known as tirzepatide. The objective was to see which drug resulted in a bigger quantity of weight reduction. Sufferers who took tirzepatide misplaced extra weight than these on semaglutide at each measured interval. After 12 months, sufferers taking Lilly’s drug noticed almost 7% extra weight reduction than these taking Novo’s. In December, researchers launched additional knowledge confirming these findings. This information has been a darkish cloud hanging over Novo shares. They’ve dropped 24% since researchers launched the examine in July, as of the Dec. 17 shut.
Clearly, markets are involved about Novo’s potential to maintain up the gross sales progress of its GLP-1 when an apparently superior remedy exists. Additionally, there may be a lot chatter in regards to the drug being topic to Medicare worth negotiations. This may decrease the value of the drug, decreasing the quantity of income Novo may obtain from every Medicare affected person. In the meantime, market commentators don’t appear to imagine Zepbound should bear the identical scrutiny.
MASH: A Potential Subsequent Frontier for Semaglutide
Though Novo and Lilly’s drug is presently solely authorised to deal with weight problems and diabetes, the businesses are frequently researching them to deal with different circumstances. This contains metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). It is a illness the place fats builds up within the liver, resulting in scarring and cirrhosis if left untreated. It’s totally different from alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH). The liver injury is just not as a result of extreme alcohol use. Because of this, it’s also known as non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). There have been no Meals and Drug Administration (FDA) therapies authorised for MASH till just lately.
Novo Nordisk A/S Inventory Forecast Today12-Month Inventory Worth Forecast:$150.4045.40% UpsideBuyBased on 7 Analyst RatingsHigh Forecast$160.00Average Forecast$150.40Low Forecast$120.00Novo Nordisk A/S Inventory Forecast Particulars
Madrigal Prescribed drugs acquired FDA approval for its MASH remedy in March. Since then, gross sales have been exploding. Revenues from the MASH drug Rezdiffra grew by over 400% from Q2 of this 12 months to Q3. The $62 million in gross sales crushed consensus projections on Wall Avenue by 83%. Now, some analysts are projecting gross sales of the drug to prime $500 million in 2025. By 2030, analysts at Consider count on Rezdiffra gross sales to prime $3 billion. They see all the MASH remedy market price almost $10 billion a 12 months.
Section 3 trial outcomes counsel that Novo may take a big a part of this market. The MASH trials’ major objectives are to enhance liver fibrosis and resolve steatohepatitis with out worsening both situation in individuals with MASH. Researchers examine this to a placebo. In sufferers who took semaglutide, there was a 17% better price of attaining each endpoints in comparison with the placebo group. The distinction between sufferers who took Rezdiffra was simply 12%. This factors to a potential efficacy benefit in comparison with Rezdiffra.
MASH Approval May Assist Change the Narrative Round Semaglutide
With these outcomes, Novo plans to file for regulatory approval of semaglutide to deal with MASH within the first half of 2025. It should accomplish that each in Europe and the US. This might make the corporate’s drug the second to enter the MASH market.
Given Rezdiffra’s explosive gross sales progress, Novo might obtain the identical final result if authorities approve its drug. Success on this multi-billion-dollar market could possibly be a shot within the arm for Novo’s worth. It could assist the sentiment round semaglutide, given latest negativity. Nonetheless, Novo might want to hold innovating within the weight reduction market to keep up its dominant place over Eli Lilly and different opponents. Novo nonetheless maintains a 65% market share in international GLP-1 quantity.Earlier than you take into account Novo Nordisk A/S, you may need to hear this.MarketBeat retains observe of Wall Avenue’s top-rated and finest performing analysis analysts and the shares they advocate to their purchasers every day. MarketBeat has recognized the 5 shares that prime analysts are quietly whispering to their purchasers to purchase now earlier than the broader market catches on… and Novo Nordisk A/S wasn’t on the checklist.View The 5 Shares Right here Which shares are more likely to thrive in at this time’s difficult market? Click on the hyperlink under and we’ll ship you MarketBeat’s checklist of ten shares that may drive in any financial surroundings.Get This Free Report

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